Hayes County vs. Nebraska Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Hayes County: 2022 Population = 849 2022 Percent of State = 0.04% Nebraska: 2022 Population = 1,967,923 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.59% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Hayes County with comparisons to Nebraska and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Hayes County vs. Nebraska's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Hayes County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Hayes County's population dropped from 1,545 in 1969 to 849 in 2022, for a net loss of -696, or -45.05%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Nebraska's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Nebraska's population rose from 1,474,000 in 1969 to 1,967,923 in 2022, for a net gain of 493,923, or 33.51%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Hayes County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Nebraska, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Hayes County's overall population growth was -45.05% over 1969-2022 trailed Nebraska's increase of 33.51%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Nebraska Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Hayes County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Nebraska's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Nebraska's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Hayes County's population totaled 0.10% of Nebraska's population, while in 2022 it equated to 0.04% thereby yielding a -0.06% share-shift.
Hayes County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Hayes County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Hayes County's population contracted at an annual rate of -1.10% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1980 (3.22%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1973 (-7.43%). In 2022, Hayes County's population grew by 0.95% Hayes County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Hayes County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Hayes County's annual population growth rate averaged -1.60%. It averaged -0.62% in the 1980s, -1.32% throughout the 1990s, -0.79% in the 2000s, -1.39% throughout the 2010s, -0.27% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Hayes County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Nebraska and the nation. As the chart reveals, Hayes County's average annual population growth fell below Nebraska's average in the 1970s (-1.60% vs. 0.60%), amounted to less than Nebraska's average in the 1980s (-0.62% vs. 0.07%), amounted to less than Nebraska's average during the 1990s (-1.32% vs. 0.80%), fell below Nebraska's average during the 2000s (-0.79% vs. 0.62%), trailed Nebraska's average in the 2010s (-1.39% vs. 0.76%), and fell below Nebraska's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.27% vs. 0.22%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Hayes County recorded underneath the nation throughout the 1970s (-1.60% vs. 1.10%), fell below the nation throughout the 1980s (-0.62% vs. 0.95%), recorded underneath the nation throughout the 1990s (-1.32% vs. 1.23%), fell under the nation throughout the 2000s (-0.79% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation throughout the 2010s (-1.39% vs. 0.74%), and fell below the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.27% vs. 0.31%).
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