Metropolitan U.S. vs. Nebraska Comparative Trends Analysis: Per Capita Personal Income Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Metropolitan U.S.: 2022 PCI = $67,767 Nebraska: 2022 PCI = $64,268 Per Capita Income (PCI) is one of the most widely used indicators for gauging the economic performance and changing fortunes of local economies. It is used as a yardstick to assess the economic well being of a region's residents and the quality of consumer markets. It serves as a barometer for calibrating the economic performance of a region over time and to judge differences in relative economic prosperity between regions. Shifting trends in local per capita income growth have important social and political ramifications and significant implications in formulating local economic development strategies and initiatives. Data Definition: This measure of income is calculated as the total personal income of the residents of an area divided by the population of the area. Per capita personal income is often used as an indicator of consumers' purchasing power and of the economic well-being of the residents of an area. Personal income is measured as a flow throughout the year, while the measurement of population is at one point in mid-year. Therefore, per capita income is distorted if a significant change in population occurs during the year. For smaller counties in particular, per capita income in any given year may be exceptionally high or low for the short run because of unusual local conditions, such as a bumper crop, a catastrophe, or a major construction project as the building of a dam or nuclear power plant. Farm incomes are notorious for being especially volatile year-to-year, owing to changing weather, commodity market conditions, and alterations in government programs. Therefore, the per capita income of farm-dependent counties may exhibit sharp fluctuations over time. The presence of large institutional populations--such as residents attending a local college or the residents of a local prison or state mental institution--can significantly lower the per capita income estimates of an area. Such results may not reflect the relative economic well being of the non-institutional population and may mislead if care is not given to their interpretation. Metropolitan U.S. Per Capita Personal Income, 1970-2022 Current vs. Constant Dollars Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts the Metropolitan U.S.'s annual per capita personal income over 1970-2022 in current and constant (2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of the Metropolitan U.S. over time. When measured in current dollars, the Metropolitan U.S.'s per capita personal income increased 1,436.93%, from $4,409 in 1970 to $67,767 in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 161.79%, from $22,307 in 1970 to $58,399 in 2022. Real Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces the Metropolitan U.S.'s and Nebraska's annual real per capita personal income for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate real per capita personal income patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the Metropolitan U.S.'s real per capita personal income rose from $21,915 in 1969 to $58,399 in 2022, for a net gain of $36,484, or 166.48%. In comparison, Nebraska's real per capita personal income advanced from $19,327 in 1969 to $55,383 in 2022, for a net advance of $36,056, or 186.56%. In addition, the United States' real per capita personal income increased from $20,816 in 1969 to $56,419 in 2022, for a net gain of $35,603, or 171.04%. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 depicts the trends for per capita personal income relative to the national average by tracing the Metropolitan U.S. and Nebraska per capita personal income as a percent of the national average over 1969-2022. In 1969, the Metropolitan U.S.'s per capita personal income amounted to 105.28% of the national average; in 2022, it approximated 103.51%. Similarly, in 1969, Nebraska's per capita personal income totaled 92.85% of the national average; in 2022, it consisted of 98.16%. Metropolitan U.S. Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 4. Figure 4 shows the short-run pattern of the Metropolitan U.S.'s real per capita personal income growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Metropolitan U.S.'s real per capita personal income grew at an annual rate of 1.89% over 1970-2022. The Metropolitan U.S. posted its highest growth in 1998 (5.39%) and posted its lowest growth in 2022 (-4.52%). In 2022, the Metropolitan U.S.'s real per capita personal income declined by -4.52% Metropolitan U.S. Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 5. Over the past five decades some metropolitan regions have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 5 again illustrates the annual percent change in the Metropolitan U.S.'s real per capita personal income since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, the Metropolitan U.S.'s annual real per capita personal income growth rate averaged 2.27%. It averaged 2.23% throughout the 1980s, 2.00% throughout the 1990s, 1.00% in the 2000s, 1.97% in the 2010s, 1.72% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 6. Figure 6 compares the decade average growth rates for the Metropolitan U.S. noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Nebraska and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Metropolitan U.S.'s average annual real per capita personal income growth fell below Nebraska's average during the 1970s (2.27% vs. 2.78%), registered above Nebraska's average during the 1980s (2.23% vs. 1.90%), amounted to less than Nebraska's average throughout the 1990s (2.00% vs. 2.37%), trailed Nebraska's average during the 2000s (1.00% vs. 1.53%), outgained Nebraska's average during the 2010s (1.97% vs. 1.58%), and lagged Nebraska's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (1.72% vs. 2.46%). Finally, relative to nationwide real per capita personal income growth trends, the Metropolitan U.S. fell below the nation in the 1970s (2.27% vs. 2.37%), topped the nation throughout the 1980s (2.23% vs. 2.19%), fell below the nation in the 1990s (2.00% vs. 2.01%), fell under the nation in the 2000s (1.00% vs. 1.10%), outgained the nation during the 2010s (1.97% vs. 1.97%), and fell below the nation over 2020-2022 (1.72% vs. 1.78%).
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